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Bull, bear, and chop

Trend Regimes

A regime is the strategy's read on the market backdrop. Most atrader strategies first decide whether conditions are risk-on, risk-off, or too choppy before choosing the asset to hold.

BULLBEARCHOPSOXL-SIGTQQQ-SIG

Key Ideas

  • Risk-on regimes usually favor leveraged long equity ETFs such as TQQQ, SOXL, SPXL, or TECL.
  • Risk-off regimes usually move to inverse ETFs, volatility exposure, bonds, or cash.
  • Chop means the trend signal is weak or noisy enough that the strategy prefers a defensive holding.

Common Uses

TQQQ Core uses SPY above or below its 200-day moving average as a broad market regime gate.
Firecracker Lite uses TQQQ above or below its own 200-day moving average to decide whether the Nasdaq trend is risk-on.
TQQQ Breakout adds a chop filter before allowing TQQQ or SQQQ signals.
SOXL Growth switches between SOXL-led and TQQQ-led decision trees when SOXL has experienced a deep 60-day drawdown.

Examples

TQQQ above the 200-day average

The strategy treats the market as risk-on unless another rule, such as an overbought RSI, takes priority.

TQQQ below the 200-day average

The strategy starts checking oversold, volatility, trend-reclaim, and defensive rules instead of simply staying long.

Watch For

  • A regime label is not a prediction. It is the rule set the strategy is currently applying.
  • The same asset can appear in different regimes for different reasons, such as buying a rebound during a bear regime.
  • Regime filters reduce some noise, but they can also react late after fast reversals.